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Trusting Judgements

Name: Trusting Judgements
Brand: Cambridge University Press
SKU: 09361243
Price: 14817 HUF
Availability: InStock
Author: Mark A. Burgman
ISBN: 9781107531024

How to Get the Best out of Experts

Mark A. Burgman

Language

English

Book Paperback

Libristo code: 09361243

Publishers Cambridge University Press, October 2015

Policy and decision makers in government and industry constantly face important decisions without fu... Full description

Libristo code: 09361243

102 b

14 817 Ft

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Policy and decision makers in government and industry constantly face important decisions without full knowledge of all the facts. They rely routinely on expert advice to fill critical scientific knowledge gaps. There are unprecedented opportunities for experts to influence decisions. Yet even the most experienced can be over-confident and error-prone, and the hidden risk is that scientists and other experts can over-reach, often with good intentions, placing more weight on the evidence they provide than is warranted. This book describes how to identify potentially risky advice, explains why group judgements outperform individual estimates, and provides an accessible and up-to-date guide to the science of expert judgement. Finally, and importantly, it outlines a simple, practical framework that will help policy and decision makers to ensure that the advice that they receive is relatively reliable and accurate, thus substantially improving the quality of information on which critical decisions are made.