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Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks

Name: Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks
Brand: Springer International Publishing AG
SKU: 09285169
Price: 18818 HUF
Availability: InStock
Author: Craig E. Taylor
ISBN: 9783319194127

The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management

Craig E. Taylor

Language

English

Book Hardback

Libristo code: 09285169

Publishers Springer International Publishing AG, November 2015

This book introduces a new way of analyzing, measuring and thinking about mega-risks, a "paradigm sh... Full description

Libristo code: 09285169

125 b

18 818 Ft

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This book introduces a new way of analyzing, measuring and thinking about mega-risks, a "paradigm shift" that moves from single-solutions to multiple competitive solutions and strategies. "Robust simulation" is a statistical approach that demonstrates future risk through simulation of a suite of possible answers. To arrive at this point, the book systematically walks through the historical statistical methods for evaluating risks. The first chapters deal with three theories of probability and statistics that have been dominant in the 20th century, along with key mathematical issues and dilemmas. The book then introduces "robust simulation" which solves the problem of measuring the stability of simulated losses, incorporates outliers, and simulates future risk through a suite of possible answers and stochastic modeling of unknown variables. This book discusses various analytical methods for utilizing divergent solutions in making pragmatic financial and risk-mitigation decisions. The book emphasizes the importance of flexibility and attempts to demonstrate that alternative credible approaches are helpful and required in understanding a great many phenomena.§