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EVERYTHING IS PREDICTABLE
Language
English
English
Book
Hardback
SHORTLISTED FOR THE ROYAL SOCIETY TRIVEDI SCIENCE BOOK PRIZE 2024 'Fascinating, witty and perspectiv...
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Libristo code: 38400937
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SHORTLISTED FOR THE ROYAL SOCIETY TRIVEDI SCIENCE BOOK PRIZE 2024
'Fascinating, witty and perspective-shifting' Oliver Burkeman
'A remarkable book about a remarkable theorem' Will Storr
'Witty, lively and best of all, extremely nerdy. I learned a lot and so will you' Tim Harford
Thomas Bayes was an eighteenth-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician whose obscure life belied the profound impact of his work. Like most research into probability at the time, his theorem was mainly seen as relevant to games of chance, like dice and cards. But its implications soon became clear.
Bayes' theorem helps explain why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives, causing unnecessary anxiety for patients. A failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. But its influence goes far beyond practical applications. A cornerstone of rational thought, Bayesian principles are used in modelling and forecasting. 'Superforecasters', a group of expert predictors who outperform CIA analysts, use a Bayesian approach. And many argue that Bayes' theorem is not just a useful tool, but a description of almost everything - that it is the underlying architecture of rationality, and of the human brain.
Fusing biography, razor-sharp science communication and intellectual history, Everything Is Predictable is a captivating tour of Bayes' theorem and its impact on modern life. From medical testing to artificial intelligence, Tom Chivers shows how a single compelling idea can have far-reaching consequences.
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About the book
Full name
EVERYTHING IS PREDICTABLE
Author
TOM CHIVERS
Language
English
English
Binding
Book - Hardback
Date of issue
2024
Number of pages
336
EAN
9781399604031
ISBN
1399604031
Libristo code
38400937
Publishers
Orion
Weight
542
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